Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong about the World - and Why Things Are Better than You Think by Hans Rosling

August 2022 (526 Words, 3 Minutes)

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Version: 2018

Notes:

• Introduction

  • How can you make good guesses if your world view is upside down?
  • We focus too much on Drama and have instincts of fast conclusions
  • Be curious, impossible is possible

• Gap instinct

  • Don’t rely on statistics 100%
  • We focus too much on negative and not on positive improvements
  • Beware comparisons of averages/extremes, they block big picture
  • There are 4 levels of income, in level 4 all others seem poor

• Negative instinct

  • ultimate goal is to get to do what we want
  • must not lose hope because of misconceptions/negative thinking
  • Most people feel, not think: selective reporting are focused on negative/extreme
  • Things can be bad, but they can be better
  • Bad news is always reported, Good is almost never reported

• Straight line instinct

  • Journalist pick dramatic exceptional people in reports (exceptions)
  • Everything that helps is good in right dosage (stress, food, water, etc.)
  • Generally better income = better health and vice versa
  • Lines do not always continue straight, trends can follow different curves

• Fear instinct

  • We tend to imagine the worst case scenario, over exaggerate sometimes
  • When we are in fear, we don’t think clearly
  • The world has never been safer, but reporting has increased so much making it seem the opposite because of large awareness on bad events
  • Chemicals can kill people only because of the fear/stress/worry, not because of chemical itself
  • Plane travel has become safer than ever, terrorism is unlikely in level 4
  • Fear vs reality: calculate risks, frightening things get attention easily

• Size instinct:

  • World cannot be understood without numbers, but it cannot be understood with numbers alone
  • When resources are scarce, you must learn to use them well (time, energy, stress, money, etc.)
  • 80/20 rule: look for small things that produce most of the results
  • Humans proportioning ability is inaccurate, to avoid this, compare and divide

• Generalization instinct

  • Just because it happens one way here doesn’t mean its like that in other countries
  • west might no longer dominate in a few years
  • you are not “normal”, other people are not “idiots”
  • Money can get stolen and loses value due to inflation
  • Question your generalizations, there are differences between groups, look fro similarities too
  • Vivid examples do not demonstrate big picture
  • Just because it works in one situation doesn’t mean it does in all

• Density instinct

  • Just because it is one way, or has always been like that doesn’t mean that it its destiny or will always be that way
  • Asia and Africa are growing fast, business opportunities, most likely will catch up to west
  • prepare to update knowledge, have a vision
  • cultures can change, they are not static
  • Slow changing is still change, track gradual improvements

• Single perspective instinct

  • Simple ideas are attractive, but complexity is sometimes necessary
  • Professionals are not good at everything, we are not experts of everything
  • Numbers are no single solution, nor is medicine, there is not single solution
  • Single perspective can limit your imagination, test your ideas
  • Look for different perspectives, be aware of simple ideas/solutions

• Blame instinct

  • It is easy to find someone to blame, when we do, we stop thinking
  • Business, Journalist and refugees are doing good intentions, they are not to blame

• Urgency instinct

  • Know when something feels urgent, most of the time it is not
  • take small steps, less dramatic, but more effective
  • If wanting to improve something, measure it
  • Beware of future predictions, good or bad, aren’t always correct
  • If someone threatens you with a machete, stay calm and look at them in the eye and ask calmly what the problem is
  • Stay up to date on the info, it sparks curiosity and make better decisions
  • Don’t rely on news for understanding the world
  • pay more attention to differences within

Citation:

Rosling, Hans, et al. Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong about the World - and Why Things Are Better than You Think. Flatiron Books, 2018.