Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong about the World - and Why Things Are Better than You Think by Hans Rosling
Version: 2018
Notes:
-
Introduction
- How can you make good guesses if your world view is upside down?
- We focus too much on Drama and have instincts of fast conclusions
- Be curious, impossible is possible
-
Gap instinct
- Don’t rely on statistics 100%
- We focus too much on negative and not on positive improvements
- Beware comparisons of averages/extremes, they block big picture
- There are 4 levels of income, in level 4 all others seem poor
-
Negative instinct
- ultimate goal is to get to do what we want
- must not lose hope because of misconceptions/negative thinking
- Most people feel, not think: selective reporting are focused on negative/extreme
- Things can be bad, but they can be better
- Bad news is always reported, Good is almost never reported
-
Straight line instinct
- Journalist pick dramatic exceptional people in reports (exceptions)
- Everything that helps is good in right dosage (stress, food, water, etc.)
- Generally better income = better health and vice versa
- Lines do not always continue straight, trends can follow different curves
-
Fear instinct
- We tend to imagine the worst case scenario, over exaggerate sometimes
- When we are in fear, we don’t think clearly
- The world has never been safer, but reporting has increased so much making it seem the opposite because of large awareness on bad events
- Chemicals can kill people only because of the fear/stress/worry, not because of chemical itself
- Plane travel has become safer than ever, terrorism is unlikely in level 4
- Fear vs reality: calculate risks, frightening things get attention easily
-
Size instinct:
- World cannot be understood without numbers, but it cannot be understood with numbers alone
- When resources are scarce, you must learn to use them well (time, energy, stress, money, etc.)
- 80/20 rule: look for small things that produce most of the results
- Humans proportioning ability is inaccurate, to avoid this, compare and divide
-
Generalization instinct
- Just because it happens one way here doesn’t mean its like that in other countries
- west might no longer dominate in a few years
- you are not “normal”, other people are not “idiots”
- Money can get stolen and loses value due to inflation
- Question your generalizations, there are differences between groups, look fro similarities too
- Vivid examples do not demonstrate big picture
- Just because it works in one situation doesn’t mean it does in all
-
Density instinct
- Just because it is one way, or has always been like that doesn’t mean that it its destiny or will always be that way
- Asia and Africa are growing fast, business opportunities, most likely will catch up to west
- prepare to update knowledge, have a vision
- cultures can change, they are not static
- Slow changing is still change, track gradual improvements
-
Single perspective instinct
- Simple ideas are attractive, but complexity is sometimes necessary
- Professionals are not good at everything, we are not experts of everything
- Numbers are no single solution, nor is medicine, there is not single solution
- Single perspective can limit your imagination, test your ideas
- Look for different perspectives, be aware of simple ideas/solutions
-
Blame instinct
- It is easy to find someone to blame, when we do, we stop thinking
- Business, Journalist and refugees are doing good intentions, they are not to blame
-
Urgency instinct
- Know when something feels urgent, most of the time it is not
- take small steps, less dramatic, but more effective
- If wanting to improve something, measure it
- Beware of future predictions, good or bad, aren’t always correct
- If someone threatens you with a machete, stay calm and look at them in the eye and ask calmly what the problem is
- Stay up to date on the info, it sparks curiosity and make better decisions
- Don’t rely on news for understanding the world
- pay more attention to differences within
Citation:
Rosling, Hans, et al. Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong about the World - and Why Things Are Better than You Think. Flatiron Books, 2018.