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Version: 2018

Notes:

  • Introduction

    • How can you make good guesses if your world view is upside down?
    • We focus too much on Drama and have instincts of fast conclusions
    • Be curious, impossible is possible

  • Gap instinct

    • Don’t rely on statistics 100%
    • We focus too much on negative and not on positive improvements
    • Beware comparisons of averages/extremes, they block big picture
    • There are 4 levels of income, in level 4 all others seem poor

  • Negative instinct

    • ultimate goal is to get to do what we want
    • must not lose hope because of misconceptions/negative thinking
    • Most people feel, not think: selective reporting are focused on negative/extreme
    • Things can be bad, but they can be better
    • Bad news is always reported, Good is almost never reported

  • Straight line instinct

    • Journalist pick dramatic exceptional people in reports (exceptions)
    • Everything that helps is good in right dosage (stress, food, water, etc.)
    • Generally better income = better health and vice versa
    • Lines do not always continue straight, trends can follow different curves

  • Fear instinct

    • We tend to imagine the worst case scenario, over exaggerate sometimes
    • When we are in fear, we don’t think clearly
    • The world has never been safer, but reporting has increased so much making it seem the opposite because of large awareness on bad events
    • Chemicals can kill people only because of the fear/stress/worry, not because of chemical itself
    • Plane travel has become safer than ever, terrorism is unlikely in level 4
    • Fear vs reality: calculate risks, frightening things get attention easily

  • Size instinct:

    • World cannot be understood without numbers, but it cannot be understood with numbers alone
    • When resources are scarce, you must learn to use them well (time, energy, stress, money, etc.)
    • 80/20 rule: look for small things that produce most of the results
    • Humans proportioning ability is inaccurate, to avoid this, compare and divide

  • Generalization instinct

    • Just because it happens one way here doesn’t mean its like that in other countries
    • west might no longer dominate in a few years
    • you are not “normal”, other people are not “idiots”
    • Money can get stolen and loses value due to inflation
    • Question your generalizations, there are differences between groups, look fro similarities too
    • Vivid examples do not demonstrate big picture
    • Just because it works in one situation doesn’t mean it does in all

  • Density instinct

    • Just because it is one way, or has always been like that doesn’t mean that it its destiny or will always be that way
    • Asia and Africa are growing fast, business opportunities, most likely will catch up to west
    • prepare to update knowledge, have a vision
    • cultures can change, they are not static
    • Slow changing is still change, track gradual improvements

  • Single perspective instinct

    • Simple ideas are attractive, but complexity is sometimes necessary
    • Professionals are not good at everything, we are not experts of everything
    • Numbers are no single solution, nor is medicine, there is not single solution
    • Single perspective can limit your imagination, test your ideas
    • Look for different perspectives, be aware of simple ideas/solutions

  • Blame instinct

    • It is easy to find someone to blame, when we do, we stop thinking
    • Business, Journalist and refugees are doing good intentions, they are not to blame

  • Urgency instinct

    • Know when something feels urgent, most of the time it is not
    • take small steps, less dramatic, but more effective
    • If wanting to improve something, measure it
    • Beware of future predictions, good or bad, aren’t always correct
    • If someone threatens you with a machete, stay calm and look at them in the eye and ask calmly what the problem is
    • Stay up to date on the info, it sparks curiosity and make better decisions
    • Don’t rely on news for understanding the world
    • pay more attention to differences within

Citation:

Rosling, Hans, et al. Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong about the World - and Why Things Are Better than You Think. Flatiron Books, 2018.